Player models are the lifeblood of NFL products. Each player’s predictions are stored, but that’s just the beginning of what’s inside. After all, projection is only part of the equation. Salaries, caps, and projected ownership are all factors that make a player stand out as the best play each week.
Let’s dig into the model to see a few players with the highest caps and highest values on the Week 18 Week 13 slate that wraps up the 2022 NFL regular season.
Note: Forecasts and leverage scores/ratings are subject to change within a week of this article being posted. Please refer directly to the player model for updates as the lock approaches.
And don’t forget the tools FantasyLabs offers, such as the Lineup Optimizer, which makes it easy to create up to 300 lineups, and the Lineup Builder, if you prefer to build your lineups manually.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Hurts vs. New York Giants – $8,200 at DraftKings, $9,000 at FanDuel
Jalen Hurts Currently, the Eagles are predicting the highest ceiling at No. 29 (by Football Outsiders) on the DVOA in an ideal matchup against the Eagles’ NFC East rivals, the New York Giants.
As of this writing, it is yet to be confirmed as the Hearts deal with a shoulder injury sustained in Week 15 of their 25-20 win over the Chicago Bears. You have a great chance of reaching the 85th percentile result.If Hearts don’t make it to the regular season finale, hope Gardner Minshew The Eagles have resumed their play-call duties and are the No. 1 seed at stake in the NFC.
The Eagles are a massive 14-point home favorite in a 43-point total matchup and one of the best in the slate. A dangerous dual-threat option, Hearts is a very balanced Eagles handling duties under the center of his offense, with a 51%/49% pass-to-run play-call ratio (according to RotoViz) , averaging with Lightning to call plays. A fast 25.9 seconds.
Despite a late-season injury, Hearts continued to have a dominant season, averaging 248 passing yards per game and a 67.3% completion rate, moving the Eagles on the ground and averaging He recorded 11.1 rushing attempts and 4.79 yards carried. Against the Bears in Week 15, Hurts threw for his 315 yards and rushed for three touchdowns. Note stacking hearts with Eagles skill-positioned players despite the high price tag. AJ Brown, Devonta Smith When dallas goudart.
Looking at the trends tool, if Hurts came up in a matchup with more than 43 total points, his actual DraftKings points averaged 26.08, a +3.30 plus/minus and a 68.4% consistency rating.
Highs: Geno Smith vs. Los Angeles Rams – $6,900 at DraftKings, $7,300 at FanDuel
Breakout Season, Veteran Quarterback Geno Smith Going forward as the most valuable option in the DraftKings, he led the offense of the Seattle Seahawks and faced NFC West rivals the Los Angeles Rams.
Remaining in the mix for the 7th seed in the NFC, the Seahawks face the 19th-ranked Rams defense with an injured DVOA in the 41.5-point finale.
The Rams rank fifth in overall defense, according to the PFF, and it looks like it’s going to be a tougher matchup than expected. and passed the 300 passing yard mark in four games this season, making it a fantasy-related option. He threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns in the Week 13 27–23 shootout victory over the Rams.
Look for lots of stacking options. DK Metcalfe When Tyler Rocket Seahawks Receiving Troops and Rams skill player Kam Akers When Tutu Atwell All as viable carry-ons.
Note: Be sure to monitor Tyler Lockett’s (shin) stats leading up to the lock.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Ceiling above: Christian McCaffrey vs. Arizona Cardinals – $9,300 at DraftKings, $10,000 at FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey They are ranked 23rd in the Rush DVOA, facing an Arizona Cardinals defense that seems to be struggling to defend runs.
In his 10 weeks with the 49ers, McCaffrey is a versatile player, averaging 14.9 rushing attempts per game, 4.70 yards per carry, 6.2 targets per game, and 8.8 yards per reception. , is critical to San Francisco’s success. With San Francisco having a chance of getting the No. 1 seed (one win and Philadelphia where he lost one), McCaffrey is expected to have plenty of chances to move the offense.
In the 37–34 overtime game against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17, McCaffrey rushed for 121 yards on 19 attempts, found the end zone once, was targeted nine times, and caught six passes for 52 yards. Even with the hefty price tag, his volume and versatile playmaking ability on the 49ers offense, not to mention his upside and his 100-yard rushing bonus for touchdowns, McCaffrey is certainly 85. Percentile results can be reached.
Additionally, San Francisco is a big 14-point favorite and will have to rely heavily on McCaffrey to close out the game if the 49ers take a late lead.
Highest: Kenneth Walker III vs. Los Angeles Rams – $6,400 at DraftKings, $7,700 at FanDuel
Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III Shows the best value against the Los Angeles Rams, who are ranked 13th on the Rush DVOA.
Walker has been an integral part of the Seahawks’ offense this season, averaging 14.2 rushing attempts and 4.70 yards per carry, accounting for 56% of his rushing share this season. In addition to his backfield workload, the rookie is averaging 2.4 targets per game and 6 yards per receive, furthering his fantasy relevance by competing with the infamous Seahawks receiving his co-op. I am raising it. DK Metcalfe When Tyler Rocket.
In the 23–6 victory over the New York Jets in Week 17, Walker rushed for a season-high 133 yards on 23 attempts, found the end zone once, and caught one pass for 9 yards. .
If Walker’s volume continues with 14 or more rushing attempts in seven of his 10 starts this season, consider him a viable option for a salary reduction. The Seahawks are the 6-point favorites at home and will likely use Walker to take the win, adding to his volume and upside.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Pick
Ceiling above: Chicago Bears’ Justin Jefferson – $9,100 at DraftKings, $9,000 at FanDuel
Justin Jefferson They will face the Chicago Bears in the NFC North rivalry showdown to close out the regular season and seek the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 18. After a disappointing Week 17 game, Jefferson looks set to make an ideal matchup this week as he faces the 32nd-ranked Bears defense at Pass DVOA.
One of the elite receiving options, Jefferson is responsible for a 30% target share and is a preferred option. Kirk Cousins, averaging 11.2 targets per game and 14.3 yards per reception. Plus, expect Jefferson to be a frontrunner for his 100-yard receiving bonus. He has reached the mark in 10 of his 16 games for the Vikings this season, and has also scored a touchdown in seven. In a game he lost 41 = 17 to the Green Bay Packers, Jefferson said he was targeted five times and for 15 yards he caught one pass. Despite last week’s dismal performance, the superstar wideout appears to have consistent volume, with at least eight of his targets seen in 13 games.
Volume aside, Jefferson is a dangerous target in the red zone, having seen 26 red zone targets so far this season, only second only to the Kansas City Chiefs’ tight end, according to AddMoreFunds. Travis KelceJefferson’s volume and touchdown upside consistently make him a prime candidate for slate-breaking ability and reaching 85th percentile results.
In Week 5 of the season against the Bears, Jefferson was targeted 13 times and caught 12 passes for 154 yards. Jefferson certainly has an advantage.
Best Value: Seattle Seahawks’ Tutu Atwell – $3,400 at DraftKings, $5,300 at FanDuel
Wide receiver for the Los Angeles Rams Tutu Atwell Project is the most valuable option this week against the Seattle Seahawks, who are ranked 18th on the Pass DVOA.
Second-year wide receiver Atwell has just 10% target share this season Tyler Higby When Van Jeffersonseeing 2.7 targets per game and 16.9 yards per reception.
Atwell’s target count has steadily increased since Week 14, likely due to a rise in Rams injuries, with at least four targets seen in three of the last four games. . In Week 17 Los Angeles Atwell was targeted at quarterback when he lost 31-10 to the Chargers. baker mayfield 5 times, catching 2 passes for 10 yards,
If Davis’ passing volume continues, a digestible salary at DraftKings could make him a fantasy viable option, paving the way for higher-paying skill-position players and a cheaper option in the Genosmith-led Seahawks stack. It can even function as a resurrection.
NFL DFS Tight End Pick
Top Floor: George Kittle vs. Arizona Cardinals – $6,000 at DraftKings, $7,600 at FanDuel
without it Travis Kelse Main Slate, San Francisco 49ers Tight End George Kittle The highest ceiling project facing the defense of the Arizona Cardinals, ranked 20th on the Pass DVOA.
Kittle plays a key role in the 49ers’ passing game, seeing 5.7 targets per game and averaging 13.1 yards per reception for an 18% target share. Deebo Samuel When Brandon Ayuk.
Over the past four weeks, Kittle has had steady volume, hitting at least five targets in each game and scoring at least one touchdown in three of his four weeks. With his targets in the red zone for 13 this season, Kittle has touchdowns.
Baltimore Ravens tight end at THE BLITZ Mark Andrews A project to achieve the highest ceiling in the road matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. Andrews is $600 cheaper than Kittle and faces the Bengals’ defense, where he ranks 13th on the pass DVOA.
Andrews is the leading option in the Ravens’ receiving corps, responsible for 28% target share and 17 red zone targets. Like Kelce and Kittle’s elite receivers, Andrews has averaged 7.5 targets per game and 11.6 yards per reception, all but one game this season despite no upside touchdowns. At least he sees 5 targets.
With a pivot to DraftKings, Andrews should be reconsidered despite a less-than-ideal defensive matchup.
Highs: Pat Freyelmuth vs. Cleveland Browns – $3,800 at DraftKings, $5,500 at FanDuel
Pat Frey Elms Given his discounted salary at DraftKings, the project as the highest value for a tight end. , averaging 6.4 targets per game and 11.6 yards per receive.
In last week’s 16-13 win over the Baltimore Ravens, Frey Elmuth was targeted six times and caught three passes for 36 yards. Despite playing in a 40.5-point matchup, with steady volume, Freiermuth makes Salary his relief option. Volume should remain a consistent factor. Kenny Pickett Freihermuth has at least four targets in 13 games this season, making him an under-center mandate.
Consider pairing players in the Freiermuth and Browns skill positions. especially, Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper Also donovan peoples jones.