It’s the most wonderful time of the year. I’m not talking about Christmas. We’re talking about his last two weeks of the NFL regular season. The team’s playoff fate is decided, and it’s time for Dirk to start managing his workload like Diggler. This makes the survivor pool that saved teams still battling for postseason positioning a little easier to navigate.
The number of entries in the Survivor Pool this week will be reduced by 35%. This is mostly thanks to the Tennessee Titans who knocked out 20.43% of him locked in in Week 16.
Before we delve into Week 17’s Oops All Best Bets, let’s take a look back at last week’s results.
Week 16 Recommendations
Best bet: 3-0 (YTD: 22-11)
Lean: 1-0 (YTD: 15-5)
Traps to Avoid: 2 Avoided Eliminations (Currently: 18)
To the week 17 picks!
All lines from BetMGM.
Indy’s quarterback room is so terrifying that it’s hard to tell if the organization is in trouble for having Nick Foles again, or if they think he gives them a chance to win. It Is difficult. Given that QB talent is expected to be off the board early in the 2023 draft, a loss guarantees a top five pick (perhaps a top two or three).
One thing we can be fairly certain about is that Foles is not a good quarterback. It was either a feverish dream. In any case, he is no longer mentored by quarterback Whisperer Doug Pederson, his coach being Jeff Saturday, who had a nearly winning record as a high school coach and has been the only player since he took over. , his NFL team went 90-9 in the 4th quarter.
When pressured by the Chargers at the start of Week 16, Foles performed poorly, posting a -1.20 EPA on one attempt and a 25% success rate against the Blitz. New York has the highest blitz rate in the league (40.1%) and is tied with New England for the highest pressure rate (24.7%). This is a terrible matchup for Foles, who works behind an offensive line where he ranks 32nd in ESPN’s pass-his block-winning percentage. The Giants will eat him up like Kirby.
Saquon Barkley is well positioned to enjoy the attacking side of the ball against the Colts defense, which is ranked 28th in rushing percentage. New York could qualify for the playoffs with a win, so Bryan Dabor will have extra motivation to get deep into his bag offensively in this game.
The Giants are the third most popular play of the week with 15.45%.
Danny Ocean was able to muster a robbery crew with every player Tennessee left out in Thursday night’s game. Of Jeffrey Simmons, safety Amani Hooker and linebackers Bud Dupree and Zach Cunningham are already no-goes. Running back Derrick Henry, linebacker Denico Autry and cornerback Christian Fulton have been dubiously qualified for starting roles. What the Titans do in Week 17 will not affect the playoff outcome. The only way into the postseason is to beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville next week.
Dallas, on the other hand, still has an outside shot for the top seed in the NFC, and if they beat the Titans, they could bye bye in the first round. The Tennessee offense has his sixth-lowest scores per drive, with Tannehill at 12 games and Henry at 15. With QB Malik Willis and RB Hassan Haskins vs. DVOA he ranked second and the Cowboys actually playing for something dipping into his defense, we’re on our way to explosion city.
Jerry’s team is the 8th most popular Survivor Pick this week with 3.19%.
The Chiefs have the same record as the Bills, but Buffalo won the tiebreaker and now holds the top seed in the AFC.Denver has lost 10 of its last 12 games, and the ax fell on rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett after an embarrassing 51-14 Christmas Day loss to the Rams that was broadcast to the world on Nickelodeon. you know things are bad Patrick Starr is threatening your starting quarterback.
We often see teams rallying around a new head coach after being fired, but that usually happens early in the season when teams still have hopes. is not. They hitched their wagons to anchor and found themselves bottom of the league in points per game (15.5). Denver gets back-to-back Patrick dunks here.
Kansas City is the sixth most popular play with 7.15%.
Las Vegas went from a 6-point underdog to a 10-point underdog on Wednesday after news broke that the Raiders would bench Derek Carr for the final two games of the season. Jarrett Stidham will make his first NFL start in Kerr’s place, and it doesn’t come at a bad time.San Francisco has one of the best defenses the NFL has seen in years. is one and only he allows 15.3 points per game. Stidham has a career pass percentage of 32-61, two touchdowns, four interceptions and a QB rating of 52.8.
If the Bucks, Seahawks, and Commanders defenses can’t hold off the Brock Purdy and Niners offenses, so can the Las Vegas unit, which ranks 31st on the DVOA. San Francisco is striving for at least the second seed in the NFC. This guarantees him at least two home games in the playoffs.
This week, Niners is the 7th most popular option at 6.13%.
traps to avoid
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)
It’s highly unlikely the Jags will win this week, lose to the Titans in Week 18, and make the playoffs. In that scenario, many things have to give way. It pretty much all comes down to the season finale with Tennessee. They try to win this game, but are only 4.5 point favorites with his 31.23% of the field above them. Game theory dictates fading them unless the pool percentage available is low.
Chicago is not a good team, but they are good at carrying the ball. The Bears lead the NFL in his rushing yards per game (179.7).
Detroit is the second most popular survival play this week with 20.6%.
The Chargers qualified for the playoffs last week and have no chance of securing a home game in the postseason. Safety his Darwin James remains on concussion protocol and running back Austin Ekeler is in doubt if he will play with a knee injury. I’d rather run with a team that can play more than take the Chargers in a short period of time.
Bolt is the 4th most popular pick at 14.21%.
Statistics from Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, Football Outsiders, SharpFootball, rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).