Julio Urias has a 2.82 all-time ERA and a 2.61 in 499.1 innings over the past five seasons. FanGraphs’ Steamer projection system for him puts him at 4.05 next season. Clayton Kershaw’s 2022 ERA is his 2.28, and in the last 14 years he’s over 3.00 in two seasons. Steamer has him at 3.53. Tony Gonsolin’s all-time ERA is his 2.51. Steamer says it will be 4.39.
I could go many times. For some reason, Steamer’s predictions for Dodgers pitchers are more of a steamy pile, if you know what I mean. So it’s no surprise that the Dodgers are lacking in the “power rankings” based on these predictions. ESPN compiled a predicted record based on his Steamer. LA is his ninth most in baseball and he is predicted to win 89.7.
But even Bradford Doolittle, the author of this piece, was surprised at the low projection Los Angeles got.
Why should you be surprised? At this point, I almost take it for granted that the Dodgers rank him #1 in just about any kind of projection-based ranking I do. What the forecast doesn’t capture is the Dodgers’ incredible ability to produce players a level he’s or two higher than the numbers suggest.
Doolittle lists Noah Syndergaard and JD Martinez as two players. He makes no mention of his inexplicably low expectations of others.
Well, a projection system that thinks all Dodger pitchers are not doing well will probably project that the Dodgers aren’t as good as they used to be. It’s kind of impressive that Los Angeles is still projected to have the ninth-best record in baseball, despite the
I’ll go out on a limb and think the pitching isn’t as bad as the Steamer Project. Will Julio lead the league in ERA again? I want to bring you closer. I’d bet the Dodgers again he probably won’t win 111, but he’ll do much better than 89.7.