Game Information:

Date: Monday, December 11, 2023
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
Television: BSDETX, BSIN

The Indiana Pacers will travel to Michigan to play the Detroit Pistons on Monday, December 11, 2023, at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena. With the Pistons holding a surprising +6.5 point spread and a total points line of 247.5, this game promises to be an intriguing matchup.

Betting Odds:

Spread: Pacers -6.5
Over/Under: 247.5

Top 5 Successful NBA Betting Models:

ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI): Pacers 62.7%
FiveThirtyEight CARMELO Rating: Pacers 68%
Basketball Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS): Pacers 5.1
HOOPSPRO Report: Pacers 124.7 – 115.9
VSiN’s Prediction: Pacers -6.5
BetQL and Sportsline Models:

BetQL: Pacers -6.5
Sportsline: Pacers -7
Average Final Score Prediction:

Based on the top 5 successful NBA betting models, the average final score prediction is:

Pacers: 124.2
Pistons: 115.7

Pythagorean Theorem Plus Strength of Schedule:

Using the Pythagorean theorem, the expected final score is:

Pacers: 125.7
Pistons: 113.6

However, when factoring in strength of schedule, the predicted score becomes:

Pacers: 125.4
Pistons: 113.3

Key Player Injuries:

Aaron Nesmith (questionable)
Jalen Smith (out)
Andrew Nembhard (out)

Jalen Duren (out)
Monte Morris (out)
Marvin Bagley III (questionable)
Jared Rhoden (questionable)


The Pacers are 12-8 against the spread this season.
The Pistons are 8-14 against the spread this season.
The Pacers are 5-3 against the spread on the road this season.
The Pistons are 3-5 against the spread at home this season.

The Pacers are favored in this matchup despite missing players like Jalen Smith and Andrew Nembhard. The Pistons are also dealing with injuries, missing Jalen Duren and Monte Morris.

Final Score Prediction:

Based on the current information, here are two possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Pacers with Nesmith:

Pacers: 128
Pistons: 116

Scenario 2: Pacers without Nesmith:

Pacers: 123
Pistons: 118

Combined Pick:

Taking an average of the models’ picks and our pick, the final combined pick for the game is:

Pacers: 125.8
Pistons: 115.3

This suggests a comfortable victory for the Pacers, but the Pistons have the potential to keep it close if they can take advantage of the Pacers’ injuries. The availability of Marvin Bagley III and Jared Rhoden for the Pistons could significantly impact their rebounding and scoring ability.

Additional Considerations:

The Pacers have a balanced offensive attack, led by Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner.
The Pistons have a strong frontcourt rotation, led by Isaiah Stewart.
The Pacers have been good at covering the spread on the road, going 5-3 this season.


Pacers: Balanced scoring, strong defense, good rebounding team.
Pistons: Strong frontcourt, good rebounding team, young and hungry team.


Pacers: Lack of experience, injuries to key players, inconsistent outside shooting.
Pistons: Lack of backcourt depth, inconsistent offense, poor defensive team.


The availability of Aaron Nesmith for the Pacers.
The performance of Isaiah Stewart and Marvin Bagley III for the Pistons.


While the Pacers are the clear favorites, the Pistons have the potential to keep it.

The Pacers vs. Pistons matchup on December 11th promises to be an exciting game with a chance for an upset. While the Pacers are the favorites, the Pistons’ home court advantage and recent improvement could make the game closer than expected. This game is a must-watch for any NBA fan interested in seeing two young teams fighting for their place in the league.

Pick: Take the Pacers -6.5 points tonight. ***WINNER***