It all comes down to this. The 2022 NFL regular season ends this weekend in Week 18, but there’s still a lot to digest related to the overall playoff situation in both conferences. With both No. 1 seeds still in play and winner-takes-all tickets to the punchy postseason, it’s going to be a packed weekend that includes football on Saturday and Sunday. Of course, in our small betting circle we put our bows on the regular season and try to stay sharp while getting ready to bet all the way to Super Bowl LVI.
Below is the full picklist for the final regular season slate. First, we’ll start with his five rocks of the week.
Rock of the Week ATS: 40-41-4
All NFL odds by Caesars Sportsbook
Featured games | | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
The AFC South winner will be determined by the end of this matchup. For Tennessee, this is the only way to reach the postseason, but as long as Miami, New England and Pittsburgh also fall to Week 18, Jacksonville could technically find a way out as the No. 7 seed despite losing. But my guess is that the Jaguars should be able to beat the Titans at home, so I don’t think they need outside help to advance to the playoffs.
With Ryan Tannehill on the IR, Tennessee will start Joshua Dobbs in this matchup against rookie Malik Willis. Dobbs showed some promise against Dallas last Thursday and will now have Derrick Henry at his disposal. The Titans have scored just 17.6 points per game this season (he’s 28th in the NFL), while Lawrence’s Jaguars are just outside the top 10 in the league with his 24 points per game. I’m here. Jacksonville also covered his four-game streak going into Week 18.
If you think the Jaguars are legitimate playoff contenders, that also means bad news for the Tennessee team, who are 0-8 against current playoff teams this season.
expected score: Jaguar 27, Titan 20
pick: Jaguar -6
Featured games | | Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs
The No. 1 seed is crucial for Kansas City as the Chiefs move west to face the Raiders. If they beat the Raiders and see the Bills lose to New England, they’ll secure their home field for the rest of the postseason.
I expect the Chiefs to find a way to win the trip, but I think it will be within numbers, as has been Andy Reed’s club this season. 7 wins without This is the shyest match since 1970. road. KC allowed the team to close in, so they would face his team as Jarrett Stidham played well as he got off to his first career start for the Raiders. He threw his pass to Las Vegas for his three touchdowns and allowed him to cover as his dog at home for 10 points.
expected score: Chiefs 33, Raiders 24
pick: Raiders +9.5
Featured games | | Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
The Giants already have a playoff position, so there is no incentive to play a starter. Still, this seems too much to lay down, despite several starters expected to miss, including Daniel Jones. His Tyrod Taylor in backup is more than capable of keeping New York down to this number, especially since he has Brian Daboll still pulling the strings.After all, the Giants definitely of They own a record of 12-4 ATS, so which team to bet on this year.
The Eagles are clearly the most ambitious in this game, as a win could make them the #1 seed. But they need to balance securing home field advantage with getting as healthy as possible before the postseason. Even if it was Taylor vs. enraged Hearts, I’d be happy with two touchdowns against New York.
expected score: Eagles 27, Giants 17
pick: Giant +14
Featured games | | Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys
Dallas has moved up to the No. 1 seed in the NFC and could win the NFC East if certain dominoes fail. But that’s all premised on the Cowboys winning against Washington in Week 18, so there’s plenty of motivation in this division matchup. Meanwhile, one of the league’s top defenses will get fresh meat as the Commanders plan to start rookie Sam Howell in the regular season finale.
Howell also has to keep up with one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. Over the last 10 games, Dallas is averaging his 35.1 points per game, and it’s the 9th straight game he’s scored 27 or more points. Combine that with facing a league-leading defense in takeout and it feels like a mountain too big for Howell to climb.
It also doesn’t matter that Dak Prescott has performed well against Washington despite having turnover issues this season. In his career against the Commanders he is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS and his rating as a passer is 107.1.
expected score: Cowboys 30, Commanders 17
pick: Cowboy -7.5
Featured games | | Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
The Pittsburgh Steelers are still in the AFC playoffs, and the Dolphins and Patriots need a win and a loss to become the No. 7 seed. But I think this Cinderella run was short-lived, as Mike Tomlin’s team lost to the Browns in the regular season finale.
don’t look now But late in last week’s game against the Commanders, the Browns’ offense may have finally seen some light. Deshawn Watson tossed all his passes for his three touchdowns in the second half. Once Watson started to figure it out on the offense, the Browns’ defense has quietly become one of the better units in the league: in the last six games, he’s the second-highest in the NFL with just a few points per game. He allowed only 14 goals.
Cleveland has fallen out of playoff contention, but with Watson still laying the groundwork for 2023 and still in self-assessment mode, the Browns could go all out and pull off an upset in this matchup. It will be expensive.
expected score: Browns 24, Steelers 21
pick: Brown +3
rest of the bunch
expected score: Bengals 28, Ravens 20
pick: Bengals -7
expected score: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 17
Patriots at Bills
expected score: Bills 30, Patriots 20
pick: bill -7.5
Vikings of the Bears
expected score: Vikings 30, Bears 20
pick: Viking -7.5
expected score: Colts 21, Texans 17
pick: Colts -2.5
expected score: Dolphins 23, Jets 20
pick: Dolphin +1
Panthers of the Saints
expected score: Saints 24, Panthers 17
pick: Saints -3.5
expected score: Chargers 27, Broncos 24
pick: Charger -2.5
expected score: 49ers 27, Cardinals 14
pick: Cardinals +14
Rams at Seahawks
expected score: Seahawks 27, Rams 17
pick: Seahawks -6.5
expected score: Packers 30, Lions 27
pick: Lions +4.5