Derek Carr’s departure from the Las Vegas Raiders on the bench for the final two games of the 2022 regular season marks the end of a disappointing nine-year tenure with the organization.
Kerr was disappointed because, despite his talent for throwing football, he never developed into a first-class quarterback.
From signing Jon Gruden for $100 million to acquiring superstar receiver Davante Adams, the Raiders have seen baseline levels of support from defense despite all attempts to buy happiness. It’s a pity that I couldn’t give Carr.
Since drafting Kerr in 2014, the Raiders have ranked 19th in expected extra points (EPA) on offense and 32nd in combined EPA on defense and special teams. That outright final ranking in — Defensive Teams and Special Teams — invites an updated look at the ‘QB Betrayal Index’ published pre-season.
This update has been expanded to include all 92 quarterbacks who have been in the league since 2000 and started over 20 regular season games.
To determine how much each quarterback was “betrayed” (or not betrayed), measure how much better (or worse) their team was on offense than the defensive/special team To do. To that end, all 92 quarterback teams were ranked by the EPA on offense at the start of the game, according to TruMedia. Then rank all 92 combined defense/special team (“DST”) units in the same way. These ranking differences affect the Betrayal Index.
Drew Brees has emerged as the “most betrayed” quarterback among 92 qualifiers since 2000. This makes sense because his New Orleans his Saints were very good on offense (he was second best out of 92 offenses) and very bad in DST territory (92 81st among people). These ranking gaps result in the minus 79 differences shown in the table below.
Carr’s Raiders ranked even lower than Brees’ Saints in the DST component, but the Raiders’ offense was not as good as the Saints’ defense, making Carr “less outwitted”. Carr is the 15th most betrayed quarterback among his 92 players, placing him between Andrew Luck and Kirk his Cousins.
I will revisit this in the off season. So far, the AFC West has four starts, led by Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers (12th on offense, he’s 88th in the DST, minus 76) and Kansas City. Note that he ranks among the 15 most betrayed by 3 of them. Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes (1st in offense, 67th in DST, minus 66). Mahomes’ ability to fill that gap with top-notch play is what makes him his MVP candidate for many years.
2000-22 QB Betrayal Index: Highest to Lowest
(Photo: Chris Unger/Getty Images)