Patriots vs Steelers: A Sloppy Showdown on Prime Time

Acrisure Stadium Pittsburgh, PA – December 7, 2023 – 8:15 PM

Thursday Night Football takes us to Pittsburgh this week, where the 2-10 New England Patriots aim to upset the 7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers. This matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions, making it a prime candidate for an intriguing yet sloppy affair.

Betting Odds

  • Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -6
  • Over/Under: 30

Team Stats

This matchup pits the struggling New England Patriots (2-10) against the inconsistent Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5). Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, making it a difficult game to predict.

Team Points Per Game (PPG) Allowed PPG Yards Per Game (YPG) Allowed YPG Strength of Schedule
New England Patriots 12.3 21.5 281.7 340.2 0.535
Pittsburgh Steelers 24.3 21.2 346.1 318.5 0.495

Betting Model Predictions

Here are the predictions from some of the top NFL betting models:

Model Prediction
The Sports Geek’s A.I. Picks Model Steelers 23 – Patriots 17
SportsLine’s Advanced Computer Model Steelers 20 – Patriots 14
The Machine Learning Model for NFL Betting (Model 5.0) Steelers 24 – Patriots 13
NFL Betting Systems Steelers to win
The Power Rank Model Steelers 27 – Patriots 10
BetQL Steelers 23.5 – Patriots 16.5

Average Prediction

Based on the above predictions, the average score prediction for the game is Steelers 23.2 – Patriots 15.1.

Taking into account the model predictions, team stats, Pythagorean theorem, and other factors, I believe the Steelers will win the game. However, the Patriots’ strong defense could keep the score closer than some expect. My final prediction is Steelers 20 – Patriots 13.

My Prediction: 20-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers Win

Value Bet: Steelers -6

O/U: Over 30

Disclaimer: This is just a prediction, and anything can happen in the NFL. I recommend doing your own research before making any picks.

New England’s Offensive Slumber

The Patriots’ offense has been a shadow of its former self, averaging a league-worst 12.3 points per game. Their passing game lacks firepower, and their running game has struggled to find consistency. In Week 13, they were shut out by the Chargers, highlighting their offensive woes. The question remains: can they find their offensive spark against a strong Steelers defense?

Steelers’ Unpredictable Offense

The Steelers offense, while boasting talent, has been inconsistent throughout the season. Their reliance on Najee Harris has paid dividends at times, but it has also made them predictable and susceptible to defensive adjustments. In Week 13, they were upset by the Arizona Cardinals, showcasing their vulnerability. Will they be able to overcome their offensive inconsistencies against a hungry Patriots team?

Injury Report:

  • Patriots:
    • Out: CB Shaun Wade(Illness), RB Rhamondre Stevenson(Concussion), WR Kayshon Boutte(Shoulder)
  • Steelers:
    • Out: CB James Pierre(Shoulder), QB Kenny Pickett(Ankle)

Bailey Zappe vs. Mitchell Trubisky: A Quarterback Battle of Contrasts:

This game features a unique quarterback matchup. New England’s rookie sensation, Bailey Zappe, brings a dynamic skill set with his athleticism and mobility. However, his inexperience could be exploited by a veteran Steelers defense. On the other hand, Pittsburgh’s Mitchell Trubisky offers experience and decision-making, but he lacks the explosiveness of Zappe. This contrasting matchup creates an intriguing battle of styles.

Defense Will Be the Key

Both teams boast strong defensive units that could dictate the outcome of the game. New England’s defense, despite the offensive struggles, has been a bright spot, holding the Chargers to a season-low 6 points in Week 13. Pittsburgh’s defense, led by Alex Highsmith’s dominant pass rush, has been a consistent force throughout the season. Whichever defense can clamp down the opposing offense will have a significant advantage.


Considering these insights, along with the initial analysis, I still believe the Steelers have a stronger chance of winning. The combination of their statistical advantage, favorable home field, and higher power ranking suggests they are the more likely victor. However, the Patriots’ strong defense and potential for a motivated performance should not be underestimated.

Their defense is playing well, and I think they will be able to force Zappe into a few mistakes. The Patriots offense has been too inconsistent this season, and I don’t think they will be able to score enough points to win this game. As I’ve said, the score would be 20-13.


PICK: Steelers -6 LOSS

O/U: Over 30 WINNER