Fantasy Football Predictive Autopsy: Where I Was Right, Where I Was Wrong, Called Trevor Lawrence’s Breakout and More

Last offseason, I wrote two memoirs… if you can call them that. Here’s a look back at some of my best (and worst) predictions for fantasy football players. This isn’t just to win a lap, or laugh at missing Cam Akers. It is intended to help all of us learn more about building forecasts and managing expectations. Early thoughts of the 2023 fantasy season are already creeping in, so let’s take a look at the quarterback and running his back this week.

quarterback projection


Trevor Lawrence, JAX: 289.5 FP, 311.8 predicted — One of my top breakout quarterbacks, missing only 9 completions for Lawrence and 6-8% off yardage and touchdowns. Never underestimate what a change in coaching can do . Also, top-tier talent he doesn’t immediately write off after just one season. Justin Fields can finally break out past the halfway point of the season, with more weaponry to follow in the footsteps of Jaylen Hartz. Joining this conversation about the addition of Tyreek Hill to help his breakout.

Kirk Cousins, MIN: 285.6 FP, 307.2 predicted — below Cousins’ trading volume, but expected touchdown percentage offset those differences. Sometimes you “know who the quarterback is”, but customizable forecasts let you see how offensive pass/run percentage and plays per game can be a factor . If you didn’t use or play with them last season, give them a try in 2023. It helps to derive potential value.

Jared Goff, DET: 279.0 FP, 263.8 Predicted — Only about 5% off the Passover, but Goff’s accuracy in predicting a better Passover was the reason for this “hit.” In addition to talent shifts (additions and health), reports that Dan Campbell and staff plan to pass more show an increase in volume for Goff, and like Cousins, Goff is pretty predictable. .

Not really

Gino Smith, SEA: 303.9 FP, 220.4 predicted — This big mistake is easy. We don’t include misses (or hits) that involve injuries, but Drew predicts Rock will make up 15% of his snaps as a quarterback, and Smith’s excellent touchdown percentage further undercuts Smith’s ratings. Too much. Even without considering Smith as a full-time quarterback, the move, surrounding talent, and offensive style should have led to more optimistic projections.

Aaron Rodgers, GB: 235.2 FP, 342.5 predicted — Similar to Tom Brady, Rodgers projects quarterback talent 1) to sustain high-level performance and 2) to compensate for low-level weaponry (the latter applies only to Rodgers) It shows the variability in time. Rodgers’ attempts and completions were there, but his YPC and touchdown percentage took a hit.

Russell Wilson, DEN: 224.7 FP, 322.4 predicted — Wilson draws parallels with Brady, Rogers When Lawrence, Lawrence comparison shows the downside of poor coaching (similar to Lawrence’s rookie season). I should have leaned more towards that trend instead of showing. Uncertainty has to be a factor.

running back projection


Christian McCaffrey, CAR/SF: 308.5 FP, 317.0 Predicted — McCaffrey had 24 carries below expectations (and 3 touchdowns). Even if you chalk it up to the team’s transition, the main point is health by missing out on his total yards by just 6.3 yards. Given the futile attempts to predict missed time, I would always recommend a full season Saquon Barkley and CMC have played a full season and came very close to their predictions.

Devin Singletary, BUF: 164.9 FP, 153.5 Predicted — Singletary fell just 20 yards short of the rushing projection but missed the receiving side by 140 yards. I want Some backfields only rely on one option and some offenses remain unchanged (Bills, Lions, Cowboys, etc.).

Dameon Pierce, HOU: 155.4 FP, 186.1 predicted — Touchdowns skew things. Pierce is just 9.2% short of his yardage prediction, and that’s time missed. In many cases, it’s worth the risk if we and the beatwriters see what’s going on.

Rachaad White, TB: 120.1 FP, 106.1 Predicted — Somewhat similar to Pearce, but at the same time different, White’s rookie yardage was a little less predictable but had a touchdown boost. , had many, including myself, who had predicted an increase in the Buccaneers’ timeshare. taller than Received the volume, but the rush share remained (in addition to the short missed time). White’s season is a bit like the singletary situation in that there are teams that don’t rely on Berkau due to players (talents, health) or systems.

Not really

Josh Jacobs, LV: 303.8 FP, 176.3 Predicted — I didn’t buy into the ‘too much preseason play’ hype, but with the Raiders considering a move from Jacobs (free agency), for rookie Zamir White, I expected to get more jobs. Heck, Josh McDaniels came from one of the most nightmarish backfields to predict a touch of the week. He shows how valuable

Jamal Williams, DET: 221.9 FP, 111.8 Predicted — Going back to Singletary, even I sometimes get caught up in predicting teams to use their ‘superior talent’ more often. Even with Jamal Williams healthy, there were signs that Dandre Swift was getting 17-20+ touches each week. I was one of the many who believed the split could be 55/45 or 60/40 in favor of Swift, of course Swift was 100% he was seldom (I know I’m not describing injuries here…). But even with Swift’s high fives his game, Williams regularly found the end his zone. Williams, of course, is a touchdown-dependent risk (as is Ezekiel Elliott), going from 3 to 17 this year. I would never suggest drafting more “Williams-type running backs.” It’s lofty for Williams to predict his 10-point streak next year, but going for goals in his split in the backfield, his line and his options could pay off high dividends in the late-midfield rounds.

Cam Akers, LAR: 138.8 FP, 219.5 predicted — Well, you knew this was coming…and I don’t want to hear, “But you were finally right at the end of the season, Jake!” So what can we (well, me) learn from this? Even if you run late in the season as an RB4 from week 13, an Achilles tendon injury is no longer career-ending, but it will at least keep players out of the game for a while. The Akers were leading the way in the 2021 playoffs and were facing a tough defense, so I gave him a little pass. But given his lack of bursting, and James Robinson starting hot and fading mid-season, plus Donta Foreman having a good year away from an Achilles tendon injury, smart money is 1.5~ It’s on the 2 year rehab timeline and hopefully… in the best case… and even then, the best case could be 90% of what we know.

Chase Edmonds, MIA: 66.2 FP, 168.9 predicted — this is about the wrong running back. The expected split backfield was there, but Edmonds didn’t lead for long (one game) and was sidelined as Jeff Wilson complemented Raheem Mostert. Edmonds predicted that a split would be in effect at Singletary, but not only is a split involved, but it shows a zero-level floor if players are replaced in that timeshare.

Photo credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

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