The New Mexico Bowl is set to pit two intriguing teams against each other: the high-flying Fresno State Bulldogs and the gritty New Mexico State Aggies. With the spread set at (+3.5) in favor of Fresno State and a total of (o/u51), this game promises to be a thrilling battle for bowl supremacy.

AI Models Favor Fresno State

Several prominent AI models have weighed in on this matchup, and the consensus leans heavily towards Fresno State. BetQL, ESPN’s FPI, and SportsLine all predict a comfortable victory for the Bulldogs, with average score predictions favoring Fresno State by 10.4 points.

My Model Adds Pythagorean Perspective

My own model, which utilizes the Pythagorean theorem and strength of schedule, aligns with the AI consensus. Taking into account both offensive and defensive efficiency, my model forecasts a 35-27 victory for Fresno State.

Beyond the Numbers

While the numbers paint a clear picture, diving deeper into the teams’ strengths and weaknesses reveals a more nuanced story. Here are some key factors to consider:

New Mexico State

  • Strengths
    • Run-heavy offense led by dual-threat QB Diego Pavia (3,700+ total yards, 32 touchdowns)
    • Strong defense that allowed just 21.8 points per game (36th nationally)
    • Motivational advantage playing in their home state against a rival
  • Weaknesses
    • Passing game can be inconsistent
    • Relies heavily on Pavia’s health
    • Defense has had some issues against the pass

Fresno State

  • Strengths:
    • Explosive passing offense led by QB Mikey Keene (2,600+ yards, 20 touchdowns)
    • Experienced secondary that has intercepted 16 passes
    • Strong offensive line that ranks 41st in pass block grading
  • Weaknesses:
    • Reeling from a 0-3 finish to the season
    • Limping into bowl game without head coach Jeff Tedford
    • Run game has struggled, ranking 110th in success rate


  • Trends: New Mexico State has covered the spread in 11 of their 14 games this season, showcasing their ability to stay competitive against seemingly superior opponents. However, Fresno State has struggled against the spread, going 4-8 ATS. Interestingly, the Aggies are 5-1 ATS as favorites, while Fresno State has gone over the total in both games as an underdog.

Weather and Transfer Portal

Weather: The game is expected to be played in mild conditions, with a temperature of around 55 degrees Fahrenheit and no rain. This should not significantly impact either team’s performance.

New Mexico St. Aggies and Fresno St. Bulldogs Injury Report

New Mexico State’s star quarterback, Diego Pavia, suffered a shoulder injury in the C-USA championship game and is currently listed as questionable. While early reports suggest he will be able to play, the extent of his injury and its impact on his throwing ability remain unclear. Additionally, wide receiver Trent Hudson, who led the team in touchdown receptions this season, will be out due to an undisclosed injury.

Fresno State is dealing with a different kind of adversity, as head coach Jeff Tedford will be absent for the bowl game due to personal health issues. While the exact nature of his condition is unknown, his absence will undoubtedly be felt on the sidelines. Adding to their worries, quarterback Mikey Keene is also listed as questionable with concussion-like symptoms. Although expected to play, his performance could be affected by the lingering effects of the injury.

Final Analysis

While the AI models and my own analysis favor Fresno State, New Mexico State’s grit and resilience cannot be ignored. The Aggies have a knack for exceeding expectations and playing spoiler, and their strong ATS record is a testament to their competitive spirit.

However, Fresno State’s potent offense and home-field advantage are difficult to overcome. If the Bulldogs can execute their offensive game plan and exploit any weaknesses in the Aggies’ defense, they should be able to secure a comfortable victory.

Final Pick:

Based on the comprehensive analysis, I believe Fresno State will win the game and cover the spread (+3.5). Additionally, the offensive firepower of both teams suggests the total will go over 51 points.

Predicted Score: Fresno State 35, New Mexico State 27

This New Mexico Bowl matchup promises to be a thrilling clash between two teams with contrasting strengths and weaknesses. Whether Fresno State’s offensive firepower or New Mexico State’s underdog spirit prevails, this game is sure to be a memorable one for fans of both teams.

Pick: Fresno State +3.5