Chiefs vs Bills AFC Championship Free Pick

Chiefs vs Bills AFC Championship Free Pick

The Chiefs opened as a 5-point favorite that quickly gotten used to -3 and even -2.5 at some sportsbooks due to Mahomes injury. Mahomes status is very important to the outcome of Sundays game, however so is a suspect Kansas City defense.

The huge news out of Kansas City is whether or not quarterback Patrick Mahomes will play on Sunday in the AFC national championship. Mahomes was hurt in the 3rd quarter of the Chiefs win over Cleveland last week. He entered concussion protocol and has passed specific steps, however there is still no word as to his status for Sundays game.

Excellent Teams Win

Buffalo was equally as great winning its final six regular season video games by a typical margin of nearly 20 points. The offense averaged 38.2 points per video game and the defense, which was unstable through the very first half of the season, really has actually come on strong since late. The Bills led the Colts 24-10 prior to winning 27-24 in the wild card round and held Baltimore to just a basket in a 17-3 success last week.

There is no concern Buffalo and Kansas City are the very best two groups in the AFC. The Chiefs won 10 games in a row prior to sitting their beginners in a season-ending loss to the Chargers. The protecting Super Bowl champs won 14 routine season video games and held off a spirited Cleveland in last weeks divisional round game with Chad Henne filling in for Mahomes late in the video game.

Great Teams Cover

Through eight weeks of the routine season, Kansas City was 7-1 and 6-2 ATS. Given that, the Chiefs have actually lost just as soon as– the Chargers game when they sat the starters– however they have failed to cover a single point spread. Kansas City is 0-8-1 ATS in its last 9 video games.

Buffalo is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 video games, covering four times as an underdog. The Bills won 3 of those games outright and lost to Arizona 32-30 as a 3-point underdog.

Red Zone Defense

Costs Offense

The Chiefs permitted opponents to convert at a 76.6 percent clip inside their red zone. Its a great thing the Chiefs had simply as lots of red zone goals as their challengers or their general record may have been much various.

Considering that averaging 38.2 points a game in their last six, the Bills have actually cooled down a little scoring 27 against the Colts and 17 last week. Among the Bills touchdowns was a 101-yard interception return by Taron Johnson.

Buffalo has relied greatly on QB Josh Allen (4,544 lawns, 37 TDs) and the NFLs leading receiver Stefon Diggs (127 receptions, 1,535 lawns). In recentlys win, Diggs caught eight passes for 108 lawns and the Bills only offending goal. What Buffalo needs to do in some way is run the football enough to keep the Chiefs sincere. The Bills ran for simply 32 backyards on 16 carries last week and balanced 107.7 per video game (20th) during the regular season.

In its last 9 games, KC challengers are 24-of-30 (80 percent) on red zone journeys. In the first half of the season, the Chiefs still allowed a 71 percent conversion rate in the red zone, however lately its been much worse.

The Chiefs red zone defense has actually been surprisingly bad over the 2nd half of the season. In the last eight weeks of the regular season, opponents scored touchdowns on 18-of-21 trips inside the Chiefs red zone. Thats a conversion rate of 85.7 percent and that is why Kansas City has actually won its last 8 video games by no more than six points.

So, how can a protecting Super Bowl champ go 15-2 and not cover a spread in its last nine video games? Its a terrific concern and it has a great response. The Chiefs defense, specifically its red zone defense, is simply bad.

Back the Bills

The Chiefs are still the protecting Super Bowl champs with 15 wins under their belt this season and they are at house. Still, their horrible red zone defense will enable Buffalo to keep this game within a basket.

Whether Mahomes plays or not is a big consider Sundays outcome, however in any case the Bills remain in a position to keep this game close. They have one of the NFLs finest passing games taking on among the weaker pass defenses. The offense has been playing incredibly well though they encountered among the leagues best defenses last week in Baltimore.

NFL FREE PICK: BUFFALO +3

Bet this choice now

The Bills ran for just 32 backyards on 16 carries last week and averaged 107.7 per video game (20th) during the routine season.

Related

Kansas City is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine video games.

Thats a conversion rate of 85.7 percent and that is why Kansas City has actually won its last eight video games by no more than 6 points.

The Chiefs won 10 video games in a row prior to sitting their beginners in a season-ending loss to the Chargers. The defending Super Bowl champs won 14 regular season games and held off a feisty Cleveland in last weeks divisional round game with Chad Henne filling in for Mahomes late in the game.