The Bills are small favorites at the majority of online sportsbooks. They are between -1 and -2 at all noted sportsbooks. The overall is 50 points.
At a casual look, one might think the Bills defense is sufficient and even “good,” for absence of a much better term. Buffalo ranks 12th in DVOA (defense changed value over average). That may not seem all that bad considering there are 32 groups in the NFL.
Then, you take a look at the Bills defense against the run. Buffalo ranks 27th in rushing success rate, a measure of how constant opponents acquire the necessary backyards required on a provided down. Needless to state, ranking 27th because classification is not great.
Last week, reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson hurried for 136 backyards and a goal as Baltimore knocked off Tennessee in the Wild Card round. Now, the Ravens will take on a Buffalo defense that is coming off quiting 472 total yards to Indianapolis. That Bills defense could be the difference on Saturday.
In recentlys win over Indianapolis, the Bills enabled the Colts to hurry for 163 yards. This was a Colts team that had a hard time to run the ball most of the season till novice Jonathan Taylor emerged late in the routine season. Buffalo permitted Indianapolis an average of 5.4 lawns per carry. Again, bad.
Going into the 2020 AFC playoffs, if there was one group that no one wanted to play it was the Baltimore Ravens. They won 5 straight to close the regular season and did so in excellent style. The Ravens hurried for approximately 267.4 yards in those 5 video games and balanced 37.2 points.
Stopping the Ravens
Buffalo will now be tasked with stopping the NFLs No. 1 rushing attack. Baltimore balanced 191.9 backyards per video game for the routine season. Last week, Jackson and business ran for an overall of 236 backyards while balancing a whopping 6.7 yards per carry.
The issue with stopping Baltimore is that even if you can take away Jackson, who rushed for 1,000 backyards in a 2nd successive season, you still need to deal with J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Mark Ingram.
Buffalos defense is going to have problems stopping the Ravens on Saturday. Baltimore simply happens to rank 11th in offending effectiveness.
Ravens Passing Game
Last week, Colts tight ends captured 14 passes for 136 backyards and a touchdown. With Bills CB Tre-Davious White secured on Brown, Andrews might be Jacksons leading target on Saturday. Andrews is no stranger to directing the Ravens passing video game. Last year, he led the team with 64 catches and his 10 goals in 2019 were the most amongst tight ends.
Jacksons counterpart, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, is a very respectable 26-17-2 ATS in his two-plus years as the Bills starter. As a house preferred however, Allen is just 7-7 ATS. On the other side, Jackson thrives when he and his Ravens are road underdogs.
Not only will the Ravens cover the spread which opened at +3 and is now down to +2, however Baltimore will pull the upset on the roadway.
In 5 video games in which Baltimore has been a roadway dog with Jackson at quarterback, the Ravens are 4-1 ATS. If you go back to the last 11 video games in which Baltimore was the underdog, you will find that the Ravens are 10-1 ATS.
You may be believing “what if Buffalo does stop Baltimores running game”? Yes, the Ravens had the worst passing video game in the NFL this year balancing simply 171.2 yards per video game. Thats the result of the leagues finest ground attack.
The Bills and the Ravens have the very best ATS records– both 11-6– in the league this season. The Bills are 8-1 ATS in their last nine video games and Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in their last seven. Something needs to give and Lamar Jackson just may be the catalyst.
If Buffalo does have some success shutting down the Ravens run game, Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews could be in a for a special day. Andrews and WR Marquise Brown were the Ravens leading receivers with 58 catches each.
A week earlier, Baltimore outgained among the NFLs most effective offenses– Tennessee– in hurrying lawns, passing lawns, initially downs, yards per play, and time of possession. And, the Ravens held the NFLs leading rusher to 40 lawns.
NFL Free Pick: BALTIMORE +110
Now, the Ravens will take on a Buffalo defense that is coming off providing up 472 overall backyards to Indianapolis. Buffalos defense is going to have problems stopping the Ravens on Saturday. Yes, the Ravens had the worst death video game in the NFL this year balancing just 171.2 lawns per game.
Going into the 2020 AFC playoffs, if there was one group that no one desired to play it was the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens hurried for an average of 267.4 backyards in those five games and averaged 37.2 points.