Total ability of each team
Health of each team
Area of video game
How each team played in their last trip
Popularity of the group (Large fanbase).
The last factor on our list is hardly ever gone over in sports wagering online forums. The truth is, if a group is beloved by a big number of fans, sportsbooks will include that into the line since those fans wager with their heart and not with their brain. If the group has a long and consistent gaining history that gets integrated.
Numerous aspects go into a group being dreadful versus the spread but they all come down to perception. The wagering public along with the oddsmakers poor understanding of how good or bad a team really is, is what triggers a team not to cover. The line is a number produced out of thin air. The groups themselves have no interest in covering the point spread.
Some groups are simply infamously bad against the spread. UNLV, a group based in Vegas of all locations, is just 59-151 ATS considering that 2003. Is this purely coincidence or exists some dubious negotiations at play? Besides, if you desire to fix a video game, you can only pay a team to play even worse, you can not pay them to play better.
Some teams dont do so well versus the point spread. Some teams are just notoriously bad against the spread. Fantastic groups normally win their video games and cover the spread. Lots of elements go into a group being dreadful versus the spread but they all come down to understanding. The wagering public as well as the oddsmakers poor understanding of how excellent or bad a group actually is, is what causes a team not to cover.
An example of a team having a big dedicated fanbase that typically bets on them blindly are the Nebraska Cornhuskers. This is a group that was a powerhouse every years for years and just fairly recently has ended up being a bad group. Their fans would bet them and usually win (Nebraska is 132-90 ATS given that 2003). It was a double self-confidence booster. Now that they have actually fallen on tough times they are losing and are not covering spreads. The Huskers have actually gone simply 14-25 ATS given that 2017 (Worst in the Big Ten). Their fans are not only losing their games, they are losing their bets.
The Raiders are the worst NFL team at covering the spread in recent decades. Since they simply moved there this year, and this certainly has absolutely nothing to do with them being in Las Vegas. However can you image how much even worse their ATS will get now? In fact it is getting much better! They are 7-3 ATS so far in 2020. NFL players are much less most likely to be paid off anyway. They make adequate cash where they do not need to fret about “side hustles”.
Great groups typically win their games and cover the spread. Any time the press would ask Bill Belichick about taking it simple in the 2nd half against a group that he was pounding at half time he would typically react with something like “We scored all these points in the first half, so can they in the 2nd half”.
Some groups dont do so well against the point spread. This goes for bad groups as well as excellent teams.