Inside the Spread: Delaware vs. Robert Morris

Hey there, basketball fans! It’s KC here, ready to dive deep into tonight’s CAA Conference clash between the Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens and the Robert Morris Colonials. I think we can find some good value in this game tonight and some opportunity to make some money.

While it might not be the flashiest matchup on the schedule, I’m always excited to dig into these mid-major battles, where value often hides in plain sight. And boy, does this game have potential for savvy bettors.  Most of the time the sportsbooks are so busy focusing on NFL and other college games in the power conferences they spend very little time focused on these games like this one.  This is where we can find some great value.

Numbers Never Lie (But They Don’t Tell the Whole Story):

Let’s kick things off with the basics. Delaware sits as a 4.5-point road favorite, with the total hanging at 143.5. But numbers are just the tip of the iceberg. We need to delve deeper, considering trends, injuries, matchups, and that ever-important strength of schedule.

Here’s where things get interesting. Delaware boasts a 228th-ranked strength of schedule, a significant advantage over Robert Morris (314th). That translates to tougher competition, better preparation, and a mental edge that could prove crucial down the stretch.

But the numbers don’t stop there. The Pythagorean theorem, which predicts a team’s win-loss record based on points scored and allowed, whispers a similar story. Delaware’s expected record? 11-3. Robert Morris? A pedestrian 4-10.

AI Models Join the Huddle:

Speaking of predictions, the big sports betting models are all-in on Delaware. BetQL, ESPN, and Sportsline project a Blue Hens win by 5 points or more. FiveThirtyEight’s advanced metrics paint a similar picture, with Delaware edging out Robert Morris 67-62. Even KenPom, the godfather of college basketball analytics, gives Delaware the nod with a projected 5-point victory. But let’s not forget about my own proprietary model, a secret weapon built on years of experience and countless lines analyzed. Tonight, my model whispers a final score of 66-61 in favor of Delaware, echoing the consensus across the AI landscape.

Beyond the Algorithm:

While numbers are the backbone of my handicapping approach, there’s more to it than just feeding data into a computer. We need to consider the intangibles, the factors that can’t be quantified on a spreadsheet.

The Fightin’ Blue Hens are riding on some huge momentum a head-turning victory over Xavier. Prior to that game they had started the season 5-0 then dropped 3 straight. However after a win over a school like Xavier the confidence is clearly on Delaware’s side leading into tonight’s matchup.

Meanwhile, Robert Morris faces an uphill battle after dropping their last two games and only 2-7 so far on the season. The mental edge might be tilting towards Delaware, and in close contests, that can be the difference between victory and defeat.

Injuries? Thankfully, both teams seem healthy and ready to go, eliminating the risk of late-breaking lineup changes that can throw predictions off track.

The Verdict (and a Little Extra for the Sharp Minds):

So, what’s the bottom line? After dissecting the numbers, trends, and intangibles, I’m confident Delaware has what it takes to get the win and cover.  GO FIGHTING CHICKENS!! yea! Oh sorry I meant Blue Hens.

Now, for the sharp minds out there, the total of 143.5 might raise an eyebrow. Both teams rank outside the top 200 in offensive efficiency, suggesting a potential slow-paced, low-scoring affair. I have a lean on the under here so feel free to explore taking the under as a potential hedge.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. This is just one game in a long season. Keep an eye out for my future predictions, where I’ll continue to leverage the power of AI models and my own experience to provide you with the insights you need to navigate the ever-changing college basketball landscape.  As always GOOD LUCK TONIGHT!!

PICK – Take Delaware -4.5

Published by Keith "KC" Carrion

Keith Carrion aka "KC" has been in the game for over 10 years now successfully handicapping NFL, NBA, College football and College basketball games with consistent and documented success. If you just want good, honest, down to earth analysis with level headed prediction (aided now with AI) then you have come to the right guy.